US Afghan doubts on terror

Both  the  Biden  administration  and  the  Afghanistan  government  appear  to  have  shed  all illusions of the Taliban volunteering to scale down its violence and de-link itself from terror groups based in Afghanistan and Pakistan by the time the American troop pull-out is executed this September.  In Washington and Kabul, the governments are preparing for Taliban hostility to increase as the September 11 deadline nears. They are digging their feet in, too, if only to ensure that the Taliban forces are kept at bay as the evacuation goes underway.  

The Americans have sent the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group and B-52 bombers to friendly bases near Afghanistan to deter any Taliban attacks on US personnel during their exit. A few hundred  Army  Rangers  are  also  on  standby.  In  all,  over  30,000  people  will  be  leaving Afghanistan before September, including 3,500 American and 7,000-odd Nato troops and the rest comprising contractors from the US and other countries. The Taliban has not attacked US troops as yet.  Top US army officer in Afghanistan, General Scott Miller said of the military deployment: “…and [I’m] also charged with ensuring it is as safe as possible, meaning we will protect the force as we depart from Afghanistan. With that, we have the military means and capability to fully protect our force during retrograde as well as support the Afghan security forces.” Afghanistan president Ashraf Ghani, the man who will face the music after the Americans leave, is not hiding his concern that his government will have to confront the Taliban and the terror groups after the Americans leave. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Ghani did not mince words: "…the Taliban will continue to show no  earnest  interest  in  making  a  political  deal  and  will  instead  opt  for  continued  military aggression.  

If that is what happens, the Afghan government and the security forces are ready."   Ghani’s  biggest concern is  the  escalating violence,  particularly  since President Joe  Biden’s announcement  of  the  troop  withdrawal  date.  The  UN  Office  for  the  Coordination  of Humanitarian Affairs submitted a report in May: “Taliban and Afghan forces clashed across 29 of the country’s 34 provinces last week….Most lethal operations took place in Nangarhar, Kandahar, and Wardak provinces, followed by Ghazni province, where violence has increased since early April 2021. The Taliban also ramped up its attacks on Afghan forces with reports of shelling and explosions. In the northern Takhar province, the group used a drone, killing three Afghan soldiers. This is one of several drone attacks by the Taliban since the start of last year.” The Taliban have since kidnapped students, attacked civilians in many other provinces and injured college goers in violent attacks.  Gen.  Mark  A.  Milley,  chairman  of  the  US  Joint  Chiefs  of  Staff,  indicated  that  the  US government will continue to assist the Afghan government in facing the Taliban long after the American troops are  gone.  There was also  a hint that the last word on American defence cooperation  with  Kabul  has  not  yet  been  said.  

"It's  not  a  foregone  conclusion,  in  my professional military estimate, that the Taliban automatically win and Kabul falls and all those kinds of dire predictions. There is a significant military capability in the Afghan government. And we have to see how this plays out." Keeping  its  doubts  about  Taliban’s  trustworthiness  to  itself,  the  US  is  going  ahead  with implementing its share of commitments in the Doha Agreement with the Taliban. The 7,000-odd Taliban prisoners are expected to be released soon. The Americans are not speculating whether the Taliban will see that as a confidence building measure and come for talks with the Afghan government. The Taliban commanders have so far remained silent.  

President Biden is aware what President Ghani wants, but not what the Taliban want. Ghani made  his  demands  explicit  in  his  latest write-up:  One, identifying  "a credible  and  neutral mediator" for talks with the Taliban. Ghani prefers the UN to play the role. Two, arrive at "a comprehensive cease-fire...to restore credibility and faith in the peace-making process". Three, form a "transitional administration" that "would have a short tenure, and it would end as soon as presidential, parliamentary, and local elections determined the country's new leadership".  

However, what concerns him most is how the Taliban, the terrorist groups and Pakistan behave with the Afghan government after the US troops withdrawal. It is well known that some leaders of the terror groups, including al-Qaeda, are said to be in Pakistan. It is equally known that in a relationship spanning decades, members of the Taliban and the fighters of the terror groups have formed relationships through marriage or friendship. This makes de-linking them for the sake of peace in Afghanistan a difficult, even impossible, proposition.  This is what President Ghani has to say: The Taliban must articulate their desired end state with clarity and detail." In the wider scheme of things — the future of an entire country — it's a simple ask. But the Taliban have so far refused to say all that much, at least publicly.”  

He gives an example of Taliban vagueness. The Taliban demands an “Islamic system”. He does not refer to the word, “caliphate”. He says the constitution underwrites the Islamic character and there is scope for bringing in amendments provided the Taliban clarify what else they mean by that phrase.  He  has  his  own  three  questions.  One,  "…whether  and  how  the  Taliban  would  end  their relationship with Pakistan". Two, “how the Taliban plan to counter al-Qaeda and ISIS inside Afghanistan's borders”. Three, how to go about "integrating members of the Taliban in all levels of government, the military, and society" while finding ways to help "those who have lost loved ones, property, and livelihoods during the past two decades of war". He has found no  answers.