The current data and the analyses of experts from all over the world show that the United States will not abandon Ukraine, at least not for the time being. Financial support and equipment deliveries will continue, but we may see a reduction in the quantity and frequency of aid packages.
This is the conclusion reached by a Russian military expert, head of the Russian Association of Afghanistan Veterans, Franz Klinchevich. According to him, "weapons will continue to be delivered until the total destruction of Ukraine's military infrastructure, since the United States will have no other choice."
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On the other hand, the adviser to the head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Yan Gagin, said that supplies of Western equipment to Ukraine have decreased. In addition, according to reports in the British Financial Times, US President Joe Biden intends to ask Congress for funding for arms shipments to Taiwan instead of additional funds for Ukraine.
The Problems of Continued Deliveries
Be that as it may, the problems the West faces in its efforts to deliver equipment to Ukraine are growing and intensifying.
Let us start with a recent event. On 3 August, the Ukrainian General Staff announced a shocking increase in the prices of the world arms market. The so-called "war inflation" has already reached a rate of more than 100% this year (about 400% according to Russian reports), which has already affected British arms deliveries to the Ukrainian armed forces (negatively, of course).
Independent expert Sherhi Zgurets, a member of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky's team of analysts, was forced to admit that "Ukraine is actively importing arms on its own in large quantities and is not so dependent on the help of its partners". Of course, Western countries are sending money to Kiev so that it can make these purchases, but still, this change suggests something.
It turns out that not only have weapons become outrageously expensive, but the rate of international production cannot meet the huge global demand. This is something we have reported and analysed many times before, but this is the first time that official Ukrainian statements have focused on this very important issue. It is very logical that Kiev has spoken about this problem, since the main country that will be affected by this sharp increase in arms prices is Ukraine.
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According to data provided by the Russian website SvPressa, the waiting time for MANPADS, which are used in huge quantities in war, is 8 years! The same is true for other very common weapons.
That is why experts believe that American and Western arms deliveries, although they will continue to arrive in Ukraine, will contain less and less weapons for the Ukrainian army. But how will Ukraine be able to sustain its military operations with less ammunition and weapons at a time when it is almost 100% dependent on exports of missiles and equipment?
Zelensky is in a difficult situation...
