Greek-Turkish Relations
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Michael Rubin in KATHIMERINI- "Linking the sale of F-16 to Turkey with the end of occupation in Cyprus"- What will Biden do?

Intense mobility is observed in Greek and Turkish equipment in relation to the USA, which wishes to upgrade mainly the air capabilities of the two countries, declaring the intention to provide Greece with 20+20 5th generation F-35 fighters and 40 F-16 BLOCK-fighters 70 in Turkey.

Discussions are intense on the other side of the Atlantic by US Senators who, knowing Erdogan well, want to get guarantees that the F-16 BLOCK-70 fighters that will be given to him will not be used under any circumstances against Greece, "an ally " in NATO.


In addition to the above, the new envoy of the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Cyprus started contacts on Tuesday, January 30, seeking to break the deadlock of many years in the peace talks, as reported by International Media, which points out:

The new envoy of the UN Secretary General in Cyprus started meetings with Christodoulidis and Tatar

"UN envoy Maria Angela Holguín Cuéllar, a former Colombian foreign minister, made the announcement in her first statement since the appointment of the envoy on January 5 with a mandate to investigate the resumption of negotiations.

"I come from a country that experienced 50 years of conflict. I think I can cooperate and do my best for a good result for Cyprus," he told reporters.

Cyprus remains a source of friction between the other members of the NATO military alliance, Greece and Turkey, after the latter invaded in 1974.

United Nations peacekeepers patrol a buffer zone that separates the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) from the internationally recognized south.

Countless attempts at mediation have failed. The last round of UN-sponsored negotiations collapsed in disarray in 2017 over Turkey's role in a post-settlement Cyprus.

Officially, the entire territory of Cyprus is EU territory, since the Republic of Cyprus joined the Union in 2004.

Holguín, who was Colombia's foreign minister from 2010 to 2018, met with Nicos Christodoulidis, President of Cyprus, and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar.

Tatars insist on a two (2) state solution in Cyprus

"We reiterated our focus to approach this new phase with sincere political will and positive input to create the conditions for the resumption of talks," Christodoulidis' spokesman said.

His government last week unveiled a series of confidence-building measures aimed at Turkish Cypriots.

Tatar, who has been head of the so-called "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" (TRNC) since 2020, wants a two-state arrangement. The TRNC is only recognized by Ankara.

This is rejected by the Greek Cypriots, who invoke previously agreed agreements and UN resolutions that the island will be reunited under a federal umbrella with a strong central government.

"All efforts over years of talks to find a solution on a federal basis have yielded no results since the other side does not want to share prosperity and fair governance with the Turkish side," Tatar said after the meeting with Holguin.

"For there to be a fair, sustainable and lasting agreement in Cyprus, the sovereignty of the Turkish Cypriots must absolutely be recognized. It is not possible to take a step back from this."

The Cyprus issue is at a new impasse - The "solution" Rubin

Essentially, the above shows the Tatar obsession with a two-state solution on the island, resulting in the certain failure of the efforts of the new envoy of the UN Secretary-General to restart the dialogue to find a solution to the Cyprus issue.

A solution to the deadlock for the deadlock in the Cyprus issue fueled by Erdogan and Tatars is proposed by the reputable world-renowned analyst Michael Rubin who actually suggests through an article in KATHIMERINI, he points out that, "the Greek and Cypriot governments should argue to the US Congress that if Biden wants the approval for the sale of the F-16s, the United States should link the delivery of the aircraft to the withdrawal of Turkish forces from occupied northern Cyprus."

Finally referring to the details of the proposed solution he points out:

"Turkey wants 40 fighter jets and has 40,000 occupation troops on the island. Why not legislate that it can receive 20 F-16s when it withdraws its troops and the other 20 when it repatriates the 250,000 Turks who have settled on the island, making them natives Cypriot Muslim minority in a zone that the Turkish military supposedly created to protect them."

Why Biden Won't Adopt the Rubin "Solution."

In our opinion, what Mr. Michael Rubin proposes is correct, since Turkey does not perceive diplomacy as a way to resolve its disputes with Greece and Cyprus, which has been proved to be unnecessary with the illegal invasion and occupation of part of Cyprus that continues since in 1974 until today.

The only language Erdogan understands is the one he uses in his negotiations with everyone, which is blackmail and force of arms.

However, our assessment is that the Biden Government will under no circumstances adopt the "Rubin" solution linking the acquisition of the F-16 BLOCK-70 from Turkey with the withdrawal of the occupying troops of ATTILA and the settlers from martyred Cyprus, since they have not he wants to "lose" Turkey at all costs.

Nuland's visit to Turkey and the opening of the US to restore Turkey to the F-35 program on the condition that a solution is found on its part to the S-400s that have been procured from Russia is a clear proof of this!

In general, the US sees a prime opportunity to bring Turkey back into the Western fold, not expel it.

Finally, even if hypothetically Biden always adopted the Rubin "solution", we believe that Erdogan and the entire political system in Turkey, except for the Kurds, would not back down in Cyprus.

On the contrary, we would have very high tension in Cyprus and the Aegean with the possibility of a military conflict with Turkey, at a time when the timing does not favor the USA, since the Ukrainians are losing the war with Russia and the USA will conduct in a few months the most divisive Presidential elections in their history.

In life, unfortunately, there is a separation between what is desirable and what is desirable.



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