Middle East
Updated at:

Middle East SOS - USA-Iran are one step before war -The two (2) scenarios and the "domino" of military confrontations in the region

Recently, attacks have been carried out against American military bases and targets in general in Syria-Iraq-Jordan by pro-Iranian organizations, with the last of them resulting in the death of three (3) American soldiers.

For its part, the US has declared that it will respond to these attacks against Iran, which supplies these organizations, clarifying, however, that it does not wish to get involved in a war with the mullahs.

Concerns over US military "response" to Iran

The question dominating the International Community is what the US military response will be against Iran and whether it would open the "spiral" of attacks between the two countries on the basis of action-reaction, eventually leading to a generalized military conflict with Iran, something that no one can discount.

To the question "What could the first week of the war with Iran be like", a reputable International American media attempts to answer, which points out, among other things:

"Most worrying would be an attack on Iran itself, since it's hard to see the Iranians, or any nation, being openly attacked by a foreign country and not responding in some equivalent way.

Thus, attacks on Iranian Republican Guard facilities or air and naval bases would lead to repeated attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria.

The "good" scenario for the US

The Iranian response to the January 2020 US assassination of General Qasem Soleimani is a good example.

However, there is a risk that it will not end similarly and that an escalating cycle of matching will prevail, fueled by domestic US and Iranian political pressures.

There is also the risk that a US attack on Iran could lead groups allied to Iran to increase their attacks on US targets in response, including targets such as the US Embassies in Baghdad and Beirut.

n addition, anti-Iranian groups such as the Islamic State and Kurdish and Baluchi separatist groups could see an opportunity to attack Iranian targets, including civilian targets, as happened earlier this month in Iran.

They are the ones who emerge as risks based on a "best case scenario" of a US attack on Iran.

The ugly scenario and its serious implications for US forces in the Middle East

The worst-case scenario is the US deciding to launch major attacks on Iranian targets, including the country's political and military leadership, indicating that the attacks will be far-reaching and sustained, meaning a military campaign that seeks to destroy Iran's military capability and portends change. regime, regardless of whether or not that is the real intention, since what matters is what the Iranians perceive.

Such intense attacks give the Iranians a political incentive and a practical reason to launch full-scale attacks in return.

Where and which US targets would Iran hit?

Iran could launch large-scale attacks on US bases, especially air and naval bases and command centers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, damaging or destroying the US ability to conduct operations with warplanes Airline from the above countries.

It could also launch attacks on US naval vessels, focusing mainly on the US aircraft carrier in the area, the USS Eisenhower, using anti-ship missiles, drones and submarines.

These attacks could not only cause casualties and casualties, but could, along with the loss of airfields in the Gulf countries, prevent US air power from defending US troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria.

US forces in Iraq and Syria, with limited US air support, could then be overwhelmed by large numbers of Iraqi and Syrian forces, allies of Iran.

We don't think we'd see long-range Iranian missiles at Israeli targets for fear of an Israeli nuclear response, but that wouldn't stop Hezbollah from launching tens of thousands of missiles against Israeli bases, ports, airports, infrastructure and cities.

Risk of Cyber ​​Attacks Against the US

Cyber-attacks are possible, as they have already occurred in the last two decades. So despite being 7,000 miles across the Persian Gulf from the US East Coast, the country would feel the war in some harsh and costly ways if cyber attacks are not limited to government and military targets.

It must be said that the Iranians are probably well prepared for this war.

Forty-five years of US regime change efforts, including the 1980s war, sanctions, assassinations, intimidation and threats, have left no doubt in the minds of most Iranians that they must be prepared for war with the US.

The reaction of other organizations and states

Then there are many questions about how other nations and organizations would respond.

Most likely, Hezbollah and Ansar Allah would enter the war.

Syria and Russia would apparently like to help quietly, or at least not prevent the destruction of US forces in Syria.

What would the Kurds, both in Iraq and Syria, do, seeing US forces attacking and being attacked by Iran?

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain would have difficult decisions to make, as their populations would likely see the attacks not against them but against American bases there.

The entire region, minus Israel, along with most of the world, would see Iran's actions, like the Yemenis and Iraqis, in defense of the Palestinians.

Outbreak of chain military conflicts in M. Anatolia

At the very least, within the week, we will witness a prolonged campaign of US strikes with fighter jets, drones and missiles against Iran.

At the same time, a Hezbollah-Israeli war could "spill over" into Syria, while the global economy would sink.

Turkey, China and Russia would see a great opportunity in a possible reduced US presence in the Middle East, isolated with only Israel as an ally, while Ukraine would be forced to seek peace with Russia.

The political pressure on the US to "win" in the Middle East would be enormous, haunting the 2024 elections.

However, we don't think we would see US ground troops deployed in large numbers like in Iraq and Afghanistan, since the idea of ​​an American invasion and occupation of Iran is terrifyingly absurd.

Nevertheless, a war with Iran would be so intense and would have such consequences and manifestations that in front of it the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would seem like micro-conflicts."

"John the Beast is afraid and the Beast is afraid of John"

We would say that the above expression fits perfectly to describe how they perceive the US-Iran based on the painful consequences that a direct military confrontation would have.

However, in addition to the above, our assessment is that the American "low tide" in North East would cause serious regional problems in the SE Mediterranean and the Aegean, since the "wolf" Erdogan would not miss the opportunity to attack us, trying to impose at our expense.



Follow Pentapostagma on Google news Google News