The shooting down of the Turkish UCAV ANKA S by the US was not a random incident, but the result of a serious underground conflict between Ankara and Washington on Syrian soil, and there will probably be a follow-up in the coming period.
Yesterday, US Secretary of Defense L. Austin and his counterpart G. Guler had a meeting on the serious incident that took place in Syria.
The US Secretary made it clear in a diplomatic way to Güler that the Syrian Kurds are not considered "terrorists" by the US, but allies, keeping up appearances for the rest of the time.
When a Turkish ANKA comes within 500 meters of a US military base and all soldiers are covered for any attack, shooting it down is a natural next step.
Some believe that the Turks were testing American patience, and others have said it was an accident.
An American expert asks "If Turkey attacks US troops in Syria, how should the US respond?"
According to M. Rubin and his article: "Today's shooting down of a Turkish drone should be at the same time an inspiration for the future.
To stop the ethnic cleansing in Syria, it is incumbent on the United States to help all its allies defend themselves from dictatorial regimes using drones.
Days before Azerbaijan wiped the enclave of indigenous Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh off the map, Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Kim told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that "We will not tolerate any attack on the people of Nagorno-Karabakh."
But the intent to genocide the Azeris was clear. Azerbaijani soldiers wore armbands with the image of Enver Pasha, the mastermind of the 1915 Armenian Genocide, and the slogan "Don't run Armenians, you will simply die of exhaustion!"
When the Azeris occupied Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh and a city historically entirely Armenian, the Azerbaijani government named a street after Enver Pasha.
For Armenians, Azerbaijan's arrest of the region's Armenian political leaders has obvious parallels with the arrests, and subsequent executions, of prominent Armenian leaders in 1915, an event that scholars say marked the beginning of the Armenian genocide.
While growing numbers of members of Congress are protesting or signing letters demanding action, the Biden administration is doing little to help displaced Armenians or punish Azerbaijan for systematically violating every diplomatic agreement and ceasefire they signed.
Unilateral action justifies unilateral reaction, however belated for decades, while unpunished ethnic cleansing signals its usefulness to the aggressors.
So it is now with Turkey. On October 1, 2023, two suicide bombers linked to an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attacked the front gate of Turkey's Interior Ministry, wounding two Turkish soldiers.
While there is no excuse for terrorism, the attack came after a year of almost daily Turkish cross-border attacks on Kurds.
The Turkish Interior Ministry responded by declaring all locations linked to the PKK and YPG (People's Defence Units) as well as energy infrastructure as possible targets.
Turkish drones have bombed some locations in northern Iraq and Syria.
The threat to bomb civilian and economic infrastructure constitutes collective punishment, which is illegal under international law.
Given the U.S. partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is a member, the stakes are rising that Turkey may now directly target U.S. troops.
This is not a theoretical problem. On April 7, 2023, Turkish drones targeted a convoy carrying Iraqi Kurds, SDF and US Special Forces.
The attack was not just a warning, but a deadly intent.
Local officials told me that the only reason the Americans did not die was that the ground was muddier than usual, allowing the bombs to penetrate deep into the ground before exploding.
On October 5, U.S. forces in Syria shot down a Turkish drone they considered a threat.
Such an incident within NATO is rare. The Turkish government may seek to force the United States to abandon its Syrian Kurdish allies, just as the White House abandoned the Armenians.
The United States' silence on the Turkish ethnic cleansing of Afrin may further embolden Ankara.
The fact that President Donald Trump after a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed a willingness to disavow the Kurds made Erdogan believe that American resolve is non-existent.
But it would be foolish for him ( the Turkish president) to believe it.
The United States allied with the Syrian Kurds against the Islamic State that Turkey was supporting at the time.
Turkey may be a member of NATO, but the Syrian Kurds have proven their loyalty at a time when Turkey has not.
The Islamic State remains a threat, a threat that would grow if Turkey defeats the Kurds.
Erdogan's racist hatred of the Kurds also ignores the obvious for those who have visited the Autonomous Kurdish Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria, that although far from perfect, it is impressive what they have achieved so much with so few resources.
Residents, Kurds, Arabs and others, enjoy greater freedoms than their counterparts in Syria, Turkey or areas of Iraqi Kurdistan under the control of the Barzani family.
However, this will not prevent Turkey from trying to invade again.
As Turkey seeks to ethnically cleanse northern Syria, Kurds tell me that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is demanding the same right of access and operation along its borders.
Turkey may hope that U.S. forces will simply be indifferent, but they shouldn't be.
Today's shooting down of a Turkish drone should also serve as a reminder for the future.
Washington needs to let Ankara know: If a Turkish drone, aircraft or sniper targets an American, every Turk in Syria and Iraq will have a target on his back," he concluded.
We'll just have to wait for the next incident in Syria between Americans and Turks, because it will almost certainly take place in the next few months.