Middle East
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Mass demonstrations scare Erdogan: Earthquake in Turkey "shakes" the regime

In recent years, it is a fact that Egypt-Turkey relations are on a bad level, mainly because of Erdogan's hostile attitude towards his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, whom he referred to as a "murderer" and who took power with a military officer. , overturning Mohammed Morsi, a lifelong friend and like -minded of the Turkish president.

However, Turkey's financial problems and its isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean forced Erdogan to change "line" and stop, attempting re -approach not only with Egypt but also with other Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with which because of his grandeur he had ruptured, as with Israel.

However, "for the Turkish president, his Morsi occasion and his overthrow has become a lesson", as an international media article states: which points out:

Erdogan's anti -Western course

"Erdogan's course can be described as anti-Western, as the Turkish president created close ties with Russia and supplied the Russian S-400 Russian Air Defense System for his country despite the objections of his Western allies.

In addition, Erdogan's authoritarian governance and the suppression of dissident citizens on the pretext of being Gulenists who attempted to overthrow him in 2016 with a coup led to concerns about democratic rules and human rights history to from Western democratic standards.

Despite these criticisms, the elections were held regularly in Turkey, with Erdogan winning them with popular support.

Being an elected leader, Erdogan gives him legalization to the eyes of NATO and the EU and therefore feels he must win the 2023 elections to avoid the same fate as Morsi.

Arab Spring and Morsi's election as president

Arab Spring, triggered by the desire for greater political participation, economic opportunities and social justice in the Middle East and North African region, were a series of uprisings in favor of democracy and protests that swept the region in 2010 and 2011.

The movement began Tunisia, where popular protests against corruption and economic inequality led to the overthrow of long -term dictator Zin El Abidin Ben Ali.

After Tunisia, the demonstrations quickly spread to five other countries: Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain.

After a wave of mass protests triggered by Arab Spring in Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, the country's dictator for years, was forced to resign and paved the way for holding democratic and just elections in Egypt.

Morsi, a prominent figure of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organization that has long been banned in Egypt, "ran" as a candidate for the Brotherhood and campaigning for democratic reforms and social justice, placing himself as a great deal. Political participation and financial opportunities.

The protests and the political mobilization of Arab Spring created an environment where democratic change was possible, putting the ground for Morsi's historic victory in the 2012 elections.

However, his presidency was short -lived, as he was overthrown by a military coup led by his defense minister, El Sisi, just a year later.

The coup was widely regarded as a reaction to Morsi's perceived exaggeration and attempt to consolidate the power and inability of its government to face the country's economic and social challenges. The military coup that overturned President Morsi in Egypt received a mixed response from the public.

Some Egyptians supported the intervention, while others made protests against her on the streets. Conflicts between supporters of the fallen president and the army began again in Tahrir Square, the focus of 2011 Arab Spring demonstrations that overturned Morsi's predecessor.

After a violent repression that killed many people, the Egyptian army took full control of the country.

The coup marked a dramatic change in the country's policy, with the army playing a dominant role in shaping the future of Egypt.

Erdogan's fear

During the Arab Spring uprisings, Turkey was seen as a potential model for political and economic growth in the Middle East and North African region. The country's democratic governance and economic progress had made it a substantial partner for the EU and the United States to promote regional stability. This rumor had helped to attract significant foreign investment and prompted Turkey's rapid economic growth.

After 2010, however, under President Erdogan, Turkey's democratic institutions were under increasing pressure. The government's authoritarian tendencies have undermined its reputation as a regional force and resulted in the lack of foreign investment in Turkey.

This and extensive corruption have led to a financial crisis.

The earthquakes

Two powerful earthquakes that hit Turkey on February 6 will probably aggravate the country's existing economic crisis, with possible consequences for Erdogan's re -election.

Many in Turkey blame the economic model of the Erdogan government, which is largely based on the construction sector for the high number of more than 45,000 people caused by the earthquake.

The government's slow reaction to the disaster has further harm Erdogan's reputation as a powerful leader inside and abroad.

Although Erdogan was a dominant force in the previous elections, his victory in the upcoming elections is not guaranteed.

In previous elections he has resorted to interventions in the electoral process. He may believe that he can use the same method to win a victory in the elections scheduled for May.

The "Turkish Spring"

There is increasing rage against Erdogan in a particular part of society.

If Erdogan won in the elections, the opposition would probably go to the streets and protest, as in the Arab Spring.

This is an important concern for Erdogan, as he fears that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) could be on the side of the opposition, as the Egyptian army did against Morsi in Egypt.

Erdogan wants to maintain control and the TED (Turkish Armed Forces) from preventing a "Turkish Spring".

He is afraid that the masses of the opposite people may overturn him when democratic choices are exhausted, as was the case with Morsi.

It is worth noting that El Sisi, the current Egyptian leader, was a general appointed by Morsi. Erdogan does not want to share Morsi's fate. "

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