Developments on the issue of Sweden's NATO membership are following one another, starting with Turkey, where, according to open sources, its Parliament will decide for or against it.
However, the Erdogan-Bakhcheli entanglement leaves, in our opinion, no room for a negative vote in Parliament on the issue, provided of course that the sale of the US F-16s to Turkey is approved
Now the baton is passed to Erdogan's friend and partner, Orban, who until a short while ago raised serious objections to the Scandinavian country's entry into the NATO alliance.
Orbán budged on the issue of Sweden's entry into NATO
So according to a reputable US international media outlet, "Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has sent a letter to his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristerson, inviting him to Budapest to discuss Sweden's membership in the NATO military alliance," noting:
"The invitation comes as Hungary and Turkey remain the only NATO members that have not ratified Sweden's bid to join the alliance.
NATO membership requires unanimity among all member countries, but more than a year of delays in Budapest and Ankara have frustrated other allies who want to expand the alliance amid Russia's war in Ukraine.
Orbán, a right-wing populist who has been lukewarm in his support for neighbouring Ukraine and has maintained a friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has long promised that Hungary would not be the last NATO member to endorse Sweden's candidacy.
Last month, the Turkish parliament's foreign affairs committee approved Sweden's accession protocol, bringing the Scandinavian country one step closer to joining the alliance.
Turkey's earlier U-turn on the issue in exchange for US F-16s
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan softened his opposition to Sweden's membership last year in response to Stockholm's efforts to deal with supporters of Kurdish militants and other groups in Sweden that Ankara sees as security threats.
Erdogan has also openly linked Sweden's NATO membership to Ankara's efforts to buy US-made F-16 fighter jets and called on Canada and other NATO allies to lift arms embargoes on Turkey.
While Orbán says his government supports Sweden's membership in the alliance, he claims lawmakers from his ruling Fidesz party remain hesitant because of what he called "blatant lies" by Swedish politicians about the state of Hungary's democracy.
Neither Orban nor his senior officials have indicated what kind of remedy they require from Stockholm to assuage their reservations about Sweden's membership of the military alliance.
Sweden and Finland abandoned their decades-long neutrality and sought NATO membership amid heightened security concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Finland became the 31st member of NATO last year after Hungary and Turkey were the last two countries to ratify its candidacy.
Unless an emergency meeting of Hungary's parliament is called to discuss the issue, its next scheduled meeting is expected on February 26."
The Orbán-Herdogan plan on a win-win basis
It is well known that Turkey, armed with its war industry, has so far succeeded in manipulating Hungary's foreign policy in order to convince the Orbán government not to "break" their "common front" against Sweden's NATO membership, against the background of Washington's supply of F-16s.
In fact, a top aide to the Hungarian Prime Minister recently stated that "Hungary is not convinced that Sweden is suitable for NATO membership"
Gergely Gulyas urged the Nordic country to work on bilateral relations in order to strengthen confidence towards it, while noting that Sweden's accession to the alliance is not a priority for Hungary.
We recall that Hungary is the only European country participating as an observer in the "Organisation of Turkish States", which is led by Turkey, which has, through a series of agreements, especially in the defence industry, taken Orbán's country by the side for good.
Erdogan's plan is to instrumentalize Hungary as a country that does not accept Sweden's membership of NATO by blackmailing the US into giving it the F-16 BLOCK-70.
It is not at all coincidental in our estimation that the Swedish Prime Minister's recent invitation to Hungary for discussions on his country's acceptance into NATO is timed with the Turkish Parliament's upcoming vote on the same issue.
However, everything will depend in our view on the US stance on the issue of selling F-16s to the Turks.
