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The three reasons why Turkey is not part of the Western coalition against the Houthis - What Erdogan is trying to avoid - His future stance

Turkey is known to act in all its foreign policy matters solely according to its own interests, completely ignoring the fact that it is a member of NATO and a Western ally from which it derives security and geopolitical power.

Erdogan does not hesitate to make use of his country's status as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty whenever it suits him, while on the other hand, in many respects, he is going against NATO's interests and stance on extremely important international issues, with prominent examples being the non-imposition of sanctions against Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, but also its stance in favour of the terrorist organisation Hamas, which it calls "liberationist", in contrast to the other member states of the Alliance.

These have angered the US-EU-NATO who have realised what an opportunistic and insolvent "ally" Turkey is, and on top of this Erdogan has avoided including his country in the US-led Red Sea coalition in the Red Sea, established last month to counter attacks on Israel-linked ships by Yemen's Ansarullah movement, better known as the Houthis.

In doing so, Turkey has once again avoided taking a pro-Western position as it should have in a new regional conflict.

The three (3) main reasons why Turkey is not part of the Western coalition against the Houthis

The reasons for Turkey's stance are analysed by International Media in an article pointing out:

"Some 20 nations have reportedly signed up to the US-led military coalition, although many appear to wish to keep their participation secret. Despite being a US military ally, Ankara appears to be keeping a cautious distance from any anti-Houthi initiative in the Red Sea.

Safeguarding Turkey-Saudi relations

Ankara's current stance is partly influenced by its desire to protect relations with Riyadh. As Saudi Arabia is reluctant to join the US-led mission amid ongoing peace negotiations with the Houthis, Turkey does not want to disrupt ties with the Kingdom by joining the coalition and potentially threaten the progress of the talks.

The balance with Iran

Turkey is also aware of its relations with Iran, a long-term supporter of the Houthis.

Ankara and Tehran are experiencing tensions in Iraq and Syria as well as in the South Caucasus and Turkey wishes to avoid adding to these issues.

Maintaining the pro-Palestinian image

Participation in the US-led coalition may also damage Ankara's pro-Palestinian image, an important domestic and international brand.

This is particularly taken given that the Houthis explicitly project their activity in the Red Sea as a reaction to the Gaza war."

What Turkey is trying to avoid - Its future stance

Our assessment is that in addition to the above, Turkey wishes to avoid being labelled as part of any pro-Houthi camp.

Ankara will likely continue to try to strike a delicate balance in the midst of the current crises, distancing itself from both the US-led maritime coalition and the Houthis and their attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea.

Our view is that Turkey is unlikely to join the Western military coalition against the Houthis in the future, preferring instead to balance its relations with the aforementioned countries and its stance on the Palestinian issue.

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