Armed Conflicts
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"Unexplained" explosions around Mariupol: Russian plan to prevent invasion of Ukrainian forces in Crimea

For a week now, officials have reported unexplained explosions of military equipment in Russian-held Mariupol. In fact, the locations where the explosions were recorded include an ammunition cache at an airport, two fuel shipments and a makeshift military base.

According to a British intelligence briefing, they have counted at least 14 reports of an explosion since Tuesday around Mariupol, which is reportedly almost 80 kilometers from the front lines.

"Russia will likely be concerned that unexplained explosions are occurring in a zone it may have previously assessed as being beyond the range of Ukraine's routine capabilities," the UK Ministry of Defense said.

Although it was widely destroyed earlier in the war, Mariupol is important to Russia because it is the largest city captured by Russia in 2022 that it still controls and is located on a key supply chain route.

Recall that the Ukrainian government has been pressuring the Allies for longer-range ammunition in recent months. NATO states are reluctant to acquiesce to Kiev's demands, fearing that strikes on sovereign Russian territory would escalate the conflict.

While the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), requested by Kiev, remained off the list of aid packages, in early February the US announced that it would supply Ukraine with ground-based small-diameter bombs that can to hit targets 150 kilometers away.

Recall that the Ukrainian government has been pressuring the Allies for longer-range ammunition in recent months. NATO states are reluctant to acquiesce to Kiev's demands, fearing that strikes on sovereign Russian territory would escalate the conflict.

While the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), requested by Kiev, remained off the list of aid packages, in early February the US announced that it would supply Ukraine with ground-based small-diameter bombs that can to hit targets 150 kilometers away.

Ukrainian President Zelensky on Sunday reiterated Ukrainian claims to Crimea and all disputed territories held by Russia.

Plan to prevent an invasion of Crimea

The military administration of the Russian Federation should take seriously the statements of the Ukrainian side about preparing an attack against Crimea. This, stated the deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Andrey Gurulev.

 

According to him, the Russian army should strike at points of concentration of personnel and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will be transferred to the front line. At the same time, he said, the administration should not underestimate the capabilities of the enemy.

He even believes that for a successful attack on the Russian peninsula, the Ukrainian army must achieve a tangible numerical superiority in this direction. In his opinion, the balance of power should be at least one to six in favor of the forces of Kiev. Only in this case can the attack be successful. So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have such superiority in personnel.

However, he does not rule out the possibility that talk of the imminent attack on Crimea is a diversionary maneuver by the Ukrainian military leaders.

He also focused on the role of the United States in preparing the attack on Crimea. According to him, Russia is obliged to take countermeasures in time. A particular danger, according to Gurulev, is the long-range systems supplied to Ukraine by the West. "I am sure that the Russian Federation should make maximum use of its space surveillance facilities," he said.

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