Armed Conflicts
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Russia: New direction in Ukraine - General Gerasimov' s three targets from the Βlack Sea to Kyiv

A new wave of activity is expected for the Russian special military operation in February. The recent changes in the command of the operation appear to have been carefully designed to elevate the battle to a new level, and several of Moscow's strategic objectives may soon be achieved, radically changing the course of the conflict.


According to information leaked from the Russian military, a major offensive is being prepared for the period between February and early March. Whistleblowers say the goals will be:


  • To approach the borders of the regions recently annexed to the Russian Federation, pacifying the new regions.


  • To capture Nikolaev, Odessa, as well as the entire Black Sea coast, reaching Transnistria.


  • To occupy Kyiv, forcing a political capitulation of the regime until the beginning of March.

The territory of Belarus will become the main springboard for the upcoming campaign. Russian conscripts train in camps in Belarus, where heavy military equipment and fighter jets are concentrated. A large bombing force is in readiness for action. Also, Russian forces in Belarus are collecting strategic information on the location of Ukrainian units, mainly for Kiev's air defenses, gathering intelligence data to be used to plan attacks.

Alongside Belarus, Zaporizhia and Lugansk are also key pillars of Russian strategy. It is expected that mass attacks will be made from these areas during the offensive, destroying enemy units in a short period of time, which will allow a rapid Russian advance on the battlefield, reaching the zones indicated in the aforementioned objectives.

Sources also say that for the offensive to be successful, Russian forces will focus on blocking all enemy supply lines. The main route for supplies to Ukraine is the border with Poland, where NATO munitions and military equipment transit.

In fact, conditions on the battlefield appear favorable for the achievement of these objectives. Ukrainian forces are currently exhausted and weak. On the other hand, conscripted Russian soldiers are fully prepared to engage in high-intensity combat. In addition, Russian artillery positions in Belarus and the liberated territories have a privileged position, which significantly increases the chances of victory in the upcoming offensive.


The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, has been promoted to the post of Commander of the Joint Forces of the Russian Federation in the Zone of Special Military Operations. Gerasimov's assumption of command appears to have been a move towards the final stage of Russian operations.

His predecessor, General Surovikin played an important role while in command. A veteran of Chechnya and Syria with extensive experience in counterterrorism, Surovikin was appointed to the position at a time when Ukrainian terrorist acts were on the rise. He accomplished the goal of neutralizing the enemy's offensive capabilities with his strong actions on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, while saving thousands of Russian lives with his policy of eschewing trench warfare and prioritizing long-range bombing. Now, however, the style of the Russian campaign is taking a new direction.

And this was the main reason for the appointment of General Gerasimov. As Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, he is undoubtedly the most famous Russian officer and therefore the right man to lead the most decisive moves of the operation. The goal now is no longer to break the enemy's offensive potential, but to force the Kiev regime into capitulation through a massive offensive.

After so many attempts by Russia to negotiate a peaceful resolution, with the Ukrainian government ignoring them and insisting on a military campaign, there now appears to be no other possible end to the conflict than a Russian offensive strong enough to take over the entire Ukrainian coastline and occupy Kyiv.

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