In our recent article entitled, "A stumbling block to Erdogan's plans! US bases on the Aegean islands will "strangle" Turkey," we reported on the exploration of the possibilities for expanding the US military presence in Greece, with a particular focus on the islands, which is provided for in an amendment passed by the House of Representatives to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
The Greek Straits and the fierce reaction of Russian media
As we understand, the further tightening of Greek-American relations and the creation of new US bases, this time on Aegean islands, counteracts Russian interests in the Archipelago and the Mediterranean, since the movements of the Russian fleet will be even more closely monitored by Washington in the region.
Essentially, no Russian warship will be able to move from the Black Sea to the Aegean and from there to the Mediterranean to Syria, Libya or elsewhere, unless it first passes through the "Greek Straits".
When we say "Greek Straits" we mean the following lines:
Lemnos - Lesvos - Chios - Chios - Psara - Skyros - Agios Efstratios - Lemnos
Evia - Kea - Andros - Tinos - Mykonos - Ikaria - Samos
- Peloponnese-Kythera-Antikythera-Crete-Crete-Cassos-Karpathos-Karpathos-Rhodes-Castelorizo.
Besides, the straits of Hellespont-Bosporos-Con/Police Station are of strategic importance even today, with one basic condition, which is that the "Greek Straits" are open, since if they are closed nothing enters or leaves through the straits of Hellespont from and to the Black Sea.
Following the above and in conjunction with the strategic importance of Alexandroupolis, which thanks to its port and its vertical and parallel railway and road axes has become vitally important for the US in the war in Ukraine and the control of the Balkans, a Russian media publication is particularly critical of Greece's attitude towards the US and the possibility of creating new bases on our islands in the Aegean, stating among other things that: "With the consent of the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Aegean is being completely transformed into a US-occupied military area and an 'American military lake'.
There are fears that the new bases will become a platform for NATO attacks on Russia, as well as for control by Washington and the alliance in the Balkans, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa. Moreover, the US presence will bring the Aegean Sea partition closer and legitimize Turkey's claims to waters in the Aegean and Mediterranean.
Earlier it was reported that the US House of Representatives approved an amendment to the 2024 defense budget bill. It mentions the possibility of establishing US military bases on the Greek islands. The decision to build additional infrastructure there and strengthen the presence should be ready in 120 days."
What the choice of the Aegean island(s) by the US as bases will show us
From the above it is clear that the US intends to establish new or new bases on our Aegean islands, wanting to control not only Russia but also insolvent Turkey, downgrading the strategic importance of the straits of Hellespont-Bosporus-Con/Police and upgrading the role of Greece.
However, we should note here that it is of particular importance and highly indicative of the Greek-Turkish negotiations to solve the problem of the delimitation of the continental shelf - EEZ of the two countries, to see which island or islands will be chosen for the establishment of US bases in the Aegean.
The illegal search and rescue map of the Turkish coast guard in the Aegean
Looking at the arbitrary and illegal Turkish Coast Guard Search and Rescue map presented on their official website, we see that the dividing line with Greece follows the following route:
Evros estuary-West of Samothrace-West of Samothrace-West of Lemnos-West of Lemnos-West of Agios Efstratios-East of Skyros-West of Psarae-Chios-West of Ikaria-East of Amorgos-East of Astypalaea-East of Karpathos and from there to Cyprus in a straight line.
The areas of the Aegean Sea with the illegal Turkish NOTAMs
Also, looking at the occasional illegal Turkish NTOs in the Aegean for the reservation of areas for Turkish firing and exercises, we see that these are the following five (5):
- The sea area, North Lemnos-Southwest Samothrace-Southwest Thassos-West Mount Athos, in an L-shape, allowing sea communication between Lemnos and the North Aegean only through a narrow sea strip East of Mount Athos and West of Lemnos. It should be noted that this is the location of the huge hydrocarbon deposit of BABPOURA, about 10 nm SE of Thassos, and the 1987 crisis with Turkey had to do with this area.
- The sea area between Skyros and Agios Efstratios, in the shape of a rectangle.
- The sea area between Skyros and Psara, in the shape of a rectangle. Note that between the 2 and 3 sea areas there is a narrow sea lane between Skyros and Lesvos-Psara-Chios.
- The sea area south of Ikaria-east of Naxos-west of Naxos-west of Patmos-west of Leros, north of Kinaros and Levitha, in the shape of a trapezium in the back of the Dodecanese.
- East of Rhodes at Lindos and south of the Kastelorizo complex in the shape of a large rectangle.
Which island or islands will ultimately be selected by the US and on the basis of which criterion?
The Island of Skyros
From the above we understand that the possible choice of Skyros Island by the US is the one that will "disturb" the US-Turkish relations less, without however providing any further advantage for Greece, apart from the military one, since the island in question due to its geographical position is indeed a control island for Greece in the Central and North Aegean.
We say this because Skyros is neither included within Turkey's illegal claims to Greek sovereignty under any treaty, nor does it belong within the illegal-illegal Search and Rescue area of the Turkish Coast Guard, nor is it included within any of the also illegal Turkish NOTAMs for firing and exercises.
However, it does not ensure the control of the Russian fleet's exit from the Black Sea and the straits of Constantinople-Bosporus-Ellispontos-Aegean and Alexandroupolis as much as Lemnos, nor does it ensure its entry into the Aegean from the SE Mediterranean as much as Karpathos.
The Island of Lemnos
The establishment of a US base on this island would ensure to the greatest possible extent the control of the Russian fleet's exit from the Black Sea and the straits of Constantinople-Bosporus-Ellispontos-Aegean and Alexandroupolis.
However, this is included within the illegal-illegitimate Search and Rescue area of the Turkish Coast Guard and further north it hosts the huge BAMBURA hydrocarbon deposit as mentioned above.
The island of Karpathos
The establishment of a US base on this island would ensure to the greatest extent possible control of the Russian fleet's entry into the Aegean from the SE Mediterranean, it is outside the illegal-illegitimate Search and Rescue area of the Turkish Coast Guard, but falls within the Turkish claims against Greece on the demilitarization of the Dodecanese.
The island of Amorgos
Ensures control of the Russian fleet's exit from and to the Aegean, does not fall within the illegal-illegal Turkish Coast Guard Search and Rescue Area and is not included within any of the also illegal Turkish NTOs for firing and exercises.
Conclusion
From the above we conclude that if the US eventually wants to establish a base or bases on the Greek islands in the Aegean, then if they keep an equal distance with Turkey, which we expect, they will choose either Skyros or Amorgos for them, with the former being the preferred choice for the reasons mentioned earlier.
But if they really want to show Greece that they consider it a strategic partner then they will choose either Lemnos or Karpathos, tearing up the illegal Turkish search and rescue charters and NTOs.
