The earthquakes in Turkey have so far resulted in the confirmed death of 2700 people and the injury of around 11000, numbers that are unfortunately expected to rise by the hour as thousands are trapped under the rubble.
Scientists estimate that the aftershocks will continue for some time in the wider region, affecting the lives of 13,500,000 Turkish citizens who live there.
In addition to the human losses, the economic devastation suffered by the affected areas is enormous.
President Erdoğan, since the early hours of the morning yesterday, when he had a more complete picture of the scale of the disaster, asked for external help from all countries, while he declared seven days of mourning in the country for the dead from the earthquake.
The participation of the Turkish Armed Forces
The Turkish General Staff immediately mobilized the military units of the 2nd Turkish Army based in MALATYA within the Zone of Responsibility of which the affected areas fall, with the result that 10,000 soldiers have already been involved in search and rescue operations taking place in 9 Turkish provinces.
Also active in the affected area are forces of the Military Gendarmerie, Brigade level in ADANA, the 121st Training Regiment in SERINYOL near Alexandretta and a Special Department of the Special Forces Command of the Turkish National Defence General Staff, as well as numerous officers of the civil protection, fire brigade and police.
At the same time, forces of the 3rd Turkish Army based in ERZINCAN are being mobilized to reinforce the other side, while the İNCIRLIK airbase was basically the host for foreign aid missions sent by EU countries, Israel and other countries.
Finally, there are information of the dispatch of a tanker to the port of Alexandretta by the Turkish navy, with the aim of accommodating homeless people affected by the earthquakes.
The mobilization of Greece and Greek-Turkish relations in the immediate future
Greece was one of the first countries to send aid to Turkey with a specialized team from Search and Rescue Coordination Center, as well as the Professor of Disaster Management of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and President of the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization Euthymios Lekas, to provide his valuable scientific knowledge to his Turkish colleagues.
The Prime Minister also spoke by phone with the Turkish President, expressing his condolences for the victims of the earthquakes and our country's support for the Turkish people who are being tested.
In addition to the above, our assessment is that the earthquakes and their tragic results in Turkey are expected to shape a new context in Turkey's relations with the West and by extension with Greece, that of earthquake diplomacy and humanitarian aid at least for the next 10 days.
In general, we do not expect the above short period of time to have the usual Turkish approaches with overflights on our islands in the Aegean and the attempts to intercept ships of our Coast Guard by the Turkish Coast Guard.
How will Greek-Turkish relations shape up over time?
However, the question is how Greek-Turkish relations will be shaped after the earthquake in the long term and not temporarily, where we expect a decline in Turkish aggression and whether this huge natural disaster is capable of being a starting point for abandoning Turkey's aggressive foreign policy at the expense of Greece.
The Turkish economy is known to be the problem and to deal with this huge disaster, funds will be needed, that will come from foreign aid and also from the rerouting of financial resources from the country's budget.
The consequence of the second will be in the armament programs of the Turkish defense industry not to respect the schedules that have been set and their implementation to be delayed in time.
In addition to the above, there is a capital issue concerning the holding or not of the Turkish elections on May 14, due to the enormous destruction caused by the earthquakes in the country.
However, if before the earthquakes there was a clear concern from our country about the possibility of a heated episode and a military confrontation with Turkey, especially in the interval between the 1st and 2nd electoral contests in our country, this possibility is now greatly reduced.
Turkey will first have to heal its wounds from the huge disaster it suffered and for that it will need the help of the US-EU.
This will result in the reduction of the aggressive rhetoric of Erdogan and his Ministers against the West in the next period of time, contributing to the creation of a climate of at least an apparent subsidence of the contradictions between Turkey and its "allies" in NATO.
Therefore, it is not in Turkey's interest to maintain a climate of extreme tension with our country, as before the earthquakes.
However, after the 10 days we mentioned, it is very likely that we will see some individual violations of the Greek airspace by the Turkish air force, just to meet the appearance of Turkish claims and nothing more serious.
In general, our assessment is that until the end of the election contests in Greece, we do not expect Turkey to carry out aggressive action against us, since in addition to the recessionary climate between Turkey and the West that we expect to develop, the tourist season will also come to which they are still looking forward more the neighbors to heal their wounds.
The Turkish people do not want a military confrontation with Greece to be added to the misery caused by the earthquakes, something that Erdogan understands very well and that is why he will not do it.
Gradually, however, and regardless of the election result, with or without Erdogan in power, we expect Turkey to return to its claims against us.
The only thing that we expect to be different is that if a President is elected by the Turkish opposition that there will definitely be a resumption of the Greek-Turkish dialogue, while with Erdogan if he is re-elected something like this cannot be discounted, although due to the earthquakes we may see one of his well-known pirouettes-fireworks to restart the dialogue with Greece.
In closing, we point out that the earthquakes will result in a period of recession in Greek-Turkish relations, but not the abandonment by the Turks of their aggressive views at the expense of our islands in the Aegean and of serving the ideology of the "Blue Homeland".
These exist and will exist.
